I try to understand before I judge.
Three projects, connected by the same underlying question: how can complexity – society, psychology, markets – be seen more clearly than it first appears?
Reflection. Resilience. Society.
An independent think & do tank for social analysis, democratic resilience and the question of how societies withstand crises.
Visit Alexander Forum →On psychology, crisis and being human.
Essays on mental health, addiction, trauma, resilience and philosophy – written personally, not institutionally.
Visit Widerstandskraft →Research, not gut feeling.
Quantitative sports betting research covering probability, market prices, expected value, value betting and the question of when a quoted price diverges from its mathematically expected value.
My professional path has taken me through different practical, political and communications fields, including emergency medical services, local politics, marketing and three years of formal training in early childhood education. These experiences have shaped the way I look at how people and institutions function, where they reach their limits and what consequences their decisions can have. Today, I bring these perspectives together through research, analysis and writing.More about Dorian Rammer →
Research, not gut feeling.
Quotenlabor is emerging from my ongoing research into sports betting, prediction markets and probabilistic decision-making.
The focus is on statistical models, bookmaker odds, market prices and probability estimation - and on the question of when a quoted price actually diverges from its mathematically expected value. This includes Kelly benchmarking, Poisson models, market inefficiencies, value betting and Expected Value (EV).